Turning Uncertainty into Steady Stoic Progress
Turn uncertainty into steady steps and keep going. — Marcus Aurelius
A Stoic Reading of the Line
Though the phrasing sounds modern, the spirit fits Marcus Aurelius’s Meditations: meet what you cannot predict with composed, purposeful action. In his private notes, he repeatedly urges himself to act in accordance with reason, one task at a time, regardless of the world’s turbulence. Thus, “turn uncertainty into steady steps” becomes a Stoic directive: anchor your will, choose the next right move, and keep going, because character—not circumstance—sets the pace.
Reframing the Unknown
Building on that reading, Stoicism reframes uncertainty as the arena where virtue is practiced. Epictetus begins the Enchiridion (c. 125 CE) by dividing life into what is up to us—our judgments, choices, and efforts—and what is not. By relocating attention to the former, anxiety becomes preparation, and fear becomes a checklist. Seneca’s reflections on Fortune (Letters, c. 65 CE) echo this move: the unknown does not command us; it merely invites disciplined responses.
The Next Right Action
From this mindset flows a simple method: choose the next right action and complete it well. Aurelius’s triad—objective judgment, unselfish action, and willing acceptance (Meditations 9.6)—compresses a whole philosophy into a moment-by-moment practice. Rather than wait for perfect clarity, he advises attending to the task at hand with precision and goodwill (cf. Meditations 8.5). In this way, progress emerges not from grand plans but from small, repeatable motions.
Obstacle Becomes the Way
Extending this further, Aurelius notes that impediments can propel us: “Our actions may be impeded… what stands in the way becomes the way” (Meditations 5.20, paraphrase). Uncertainty, then, is not merely tolerated; it is transformed into a training ground. Modern thinkers like Nassim Nicholas Taleb describe similar dynamics as antifragility (Antifragile, 2012), where stressors refine systems. The Stoic twist is moral: we use resistance to practice wisdom, courage, and temperance.
Practices for Steady Steps
To make this concrete, Stoics journaled—Aurelius’s Meditations are a masterclass in daily self-scrutiny. They also rehearsed setbacks in advance (premeditatio malorum) to lower shock and raise readiness, a technique Seneca commends in his Letters. Today’s psychology offers kindred tools: implementation intentions—if-then plans that automate the next step (Peter Gollwitzer, 1999)—and WOOP, which couples desire with obstacles and plans (Gabriele Oettingen, 2014). Together they convert vague uncertainty into actionable sequences.
Endurance with Tranquility
To keep going without fraying, Stoicism pairs persistence with inner calm. Aurelius counsels doing less but better—fewer, essential acts aligned with nature (Meditations 4.24)—while meeting shocks “like a rock against which the surf crashes” (4.49). The aim is not relentless strain but steady, principled motion: clear priorities, periodic recovery, and acceptance of outcomes. In this cadence, endurance feels less like grinding and more like practiced composure.
A Case Study in Calm Progress
Finally, history illustrates the method. During the 1914–1916 Endurance expedition, Ernest Shackleton led his crew through shipwreck, ice marches, and an open-boat crossing by focusing relentlessly on the next attainable milestone—camp, rations, navigation—until all hands survived (Alfred Lansing, Endurance, 1959). The environment was unknowable; the steps were knowable. In the same way, a Stoic turns uncertainty into a sequence of deliberate moves—and keeps going.