Finally, how do we locate that one decision? Use pre-mortems to surface failure modes before they happen (Gary Klein, HBR, 2007), map the critical path so downstream delays are visible (PERT, US Navy Polaris, late 1950s), and rank choices by reversibility, payoff, and uncertainty. Then, consciously downgrade noncritical decisions to fast defaults. In doing so, we practice Shikamaru’s wisdom: a genius doesn’t chase every right choice—only the right one. [...]
